1 Economies have also begun to "decouple" from the virus, meaning that COVID case surges likely to shift recovery and growth out but not down Economies have largely decoupled from virus trajectory In the US, the spike in Delta COVID cases changed – in India, larger second wave drove smaller drawdown growth expectations –pushing it out, not down 0 2. n o i s r e 1 V 202 r e b o t c 25 O Quarterly annualized, trillion 2011/12 Rupee Quarterly annualized, trillion 2012 USD ed t a 160 d p 20 u es v i 140 Delta surge shifted growth t GDP ec GDP p Pernicious second 18 s expectations out but not er path P 120 wave, comparatively path e v i t modest GDP drawdown 16 down u ec x 100 E • Surge in cases G C B moderated growth . ed v Case count (monthly, millions) Case count (monthly, millions) er estimates in second es r s t Modest first h 10 g 8 half of 2021 i r l wave, enormous l A . 6 • …but also contributed p GDP drawdown Virus u o Virus 5 r 4 G path to rising estimates in g n i t path l u 2 s all quarters of 2022 n o 0 C 0 n o 2018 19 20 21 22E t 2018 19 20 21 22E s o B y b 1 2 0 2 © t h g i r y p o 8 C Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Johns Hopkins Our World in Data, Projections from Oxford Economics, BCG