GROWING BUT SLOWING As executives turn to planning the year ahead, they face a growing but slowing global economy. Although stimulus is fading, consumers are well placed to carry the expansion forward. But leaders must also navigate risks that—while contained for the macroeconomy as a whole—can threaten individual sectors and firms. In planning the next chapter, leaders should start with a macro view in mind and translate 0 2. n that systematically to their markets, situations, and strategies. o i s r e 1 V 202 r e BCG Executive b o t KEY MACRO TRENDS COMPANIES MUST CONSIDER c 25 O ed t a Perspectives Fiscal policy and vaccines have underpinned a successful global rebound, though with d p u es varying degrees of structural scarring. As stimulus retreats and the growth bounce v i t ec p fades, households can tap booming labor markets as well as strong savings and balance s IN THIS DOCUMENT er P e v sheets to pick up where policy makers left off. While the economic recovery is slowing, the i t u ec growth context is strong for 2022 and the Delta variant has shifted growth out, not down. x E G C B . ed v er es r s t h g US DEEP DIVE | FACTOR IN US DYNAMICS AND RISKS i r l l A . p At the frontier of the global recovery, the US is the first to navigate risks related to the strong u o r G g rebound. Bottlenecks in labor markets will take more time to ease and even when they do, n i t l u s wage pressures will continue, necessitating that firms invest in productivity growth. Product n o C n o market bottlenecks will also persist as demand overshoot will keep straining productive t s o B capacity and inflict intense localized pain. Inflationary pressures will continue in the first half y b 1 2 0 of 2022 but are less likely to be structural. The retreat of monetary policywill likely be slow, 2 © t h g but policy errors remain the greatest risk of potential volatility to markets and the economy. i r y p o 2 C Source: BCG