Laborbottlenecks: Labor demand in the US is still below pre-COVID levels— 2.1 hiring difficulties and wage growth driven more by speed of hiring Total labor demand remains below pre- … but those who fired in a big way have scrambled to hire workers COVID levels… back in a big way—and have had to pay much higher wages 0 2. n o i s r Millions of jobs Wage growth (Y/Y) e 1 V 202 r 8 16% e b US hiring until Sept o t 22 million workers let go during c 1 2021 (left axis) 25 O 12% the pandemic in just 2 months US wage growth ed t a d (right axis) p 4 8% u Average hourly earnings es v i t ec p 4% s er P e v i t 17 million have been hired back 0 0% u ec x 2 E over a much longer period G C B . ed v er -4 es r Layoffs during the s t h g 1 i r pandemic (left axis) l Even if all the new open positions l A . p u o (~4 million) were filled today, r G -8 g n i payrolls (total labor demand) would t l u s n still be below pre-COVID levels o C / y / l r . / . t s s s f e f s s n e al fo o n aide e e e on u rtng l i lede e ng e t r li olth essc c i i u n c s ia t a i h i t n o s b n c a a I i ti o ta t e r n v v ood s r v ni li B sui ae t i c p u ra t i y R s Ot u g an le ti b eip cH r ma o u 1 s u e ns ma n o M 2 L ser ser t l h s i ser U 0 o du B s b rare nd F h 2 E o © H a T a W t on r N h ood g u i C W g r y D p o 11 C 1. "Layoff" difference between 2020/2021 minimum and Dec 2019; “hiring" change between minimum and Sept 2021. 2. Note: even under the best of circumstances, it takes more time to hire than to fire. Source: BLS, BCG