Continued uncertainty about future demand and economic stability 1 Global growth outlook 3 Financial markets 5 Labor market 1 4 7 GDP forecasts (Real GDP YoY) Equity market performance (YTD change) Job openings rate 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Change US 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 8 S&P 500 -18.8% -14.4% -19.4% US 6.8% 6.5% 6.4% -0.1ppts Eurozone 5.3% 3.2% -0.1% 1.5% Eurostoxx 50 -15.8% -7.8% -11.7% Eurozone 3.2% 3.1% - -0.1ppts Global 6.0% 2.9% 2.1% 2.9% Unemployment rate9 5 Corporate spreads (High Yield) Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change 2 Commodity prices and inflation Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change US 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% -0.1ppts Commodity prices2 US 4.64% 4.48% 4.69% +21bps Germany 3.0% - - - Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change Eurozone 6.05% 5.26% 5.21% -14bps France 7.1% - - - Brent oil 86.5 80.6 80.3 -0.4% Natural gas 4 Monetary policy 6 Manufacturing US 6.4 6.9 4.5 -35.4% Eurozone 84.0 140.0 74.0 --47.1% Monetary policy rates6 PMI manufacturing (<50 = contraction)10 Consumer price inflation (YoY)3 Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Change US 7.7% 7.1% - -0.6ppts US 3.25% 4.0% 4.5% +50bps US 50.2 49.0 48.4 -1.2% Eurozone 10.6% 10.1% - -0.5ppts Eurozone 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% +50bps Eurozone 46.6 47.1 47.8 +1.5% 1. Bloomberg, data as of 01/06/2023. 2. Data presented as end of month figures. Brent oil in $/bbl; US natural gas (Henry Hub) in $/MMbtu; Dutch natural gas (TTF front month future) in EUR/MWh. 3. CPI monthly seasonally adjusted data from Bureau of Labor Statistics; HICP monthly data for Eurozone from Eurostat. 4. Bloomberg. 5. Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Average OAS; Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Average OAS. 6. Federal Reserve for US; ECB for Eurozone (main refinancing rate). 7. Seasonally adjusted rates; Bureau of Labor Statistics for US; job vacancy rate from Eurostat for Eurozone. 8. As of 11/30 2022. 9. Bureau of Labor Statistics for US; Eurostat for Eurozone. 10. ISM manufacturing PMI for US; S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI from Markit for Eurozone. Note: All displayed numbers are based on end of month figures. Changes based on incremental changes vs. previous months, except for Job openings rate which is based on changes vs. previous quarter.
The CEO's Dilemma | BCG Interactive Microsite Page 3 Page 5