A fast and strong global recovery—with varying degrees of structural 1 scarring and an expected growth slowdown in 2022 Global economy has rebounded …with levels recovery within sight everywhere, but trend recovery has wider strongly since the depths… distribution (structural scarring) in emerging markets 0 2. n o i US Germany Japan s s r World GDP e et Levels recovery: Completed Levels recovery: Expected soon Levels recovery: Expected soon 1 V k 202 r 100 r Trend recovery: Overshoot expected Trend recovery: Not full Trend recovery: Not full e b o Trend recovery a t )22 1)3.50 ) c 1s s 1s 95 m 25 O 1) n21 n n o o560 ed s o i i t i l l a ed l l l d n l i 3.25 i i r r p o 90 p r20 t t u i t 540 l € es l o $ ¥ v i 5 i r 219 1 5 t t el 1 0 3.00 1 ec 0 0 p $85 2 2 2520 s 5 (18 ( ( er Levels recovery P 1 ev e v i 0 17 2.75 500 t 2 80 D u ( ec 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 x E G 75 C B . ed s China Brazil India v 70 t er es e Levels recovery: Completed Levels recovery: Completed Levels recovery: Expected soon r s 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 t k h g r i Trend recovery: Completed Trend recovery: Not full Trend recovery: Large impairment r ) l 1 l s A . ) ) n p ma 1 1 200 u s o o s i r l n n l G Global economy has made a “levels o i g g i o2.0 r 180 n l125 i t i l l t n i l e l r i u recovery” (back to 2019 output levels) i t r e s t 160 n g p o B l C r a u M e n but will take more time to return to 1.8 R140 o 100 t R R 5 s 5 0 0 o me / B pre-COVID trend(i.e., structural 1 0 4 120 y E 0 0 0 b 2 2 1 ( ( 0 2 scarring) 75 1.6 2 100 0 ( 2 © 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 t h g i r y p Growth slowdown in 2022 built into V-shapes, returning many economies to a 2019-like growth environment o 44 C 1. SAAR (Seasonally adjusted annual rate); Source: Oxford Economics, BCG