1 Stimulative fiscal policy, which successfully contained structural damage, is now (appropriately) in retreat around the world Fiscal stimulus successfully limited structural …but now flips from being tailwind to headwind 1 damage… (as it is expected to fade in 2022) 0 2. n o i s r e COVID fiscal stimulus (% of GDP) 1-year change in government balance (%) 1 V 202 r e b o 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 t 2 -25 c 25 O Increasing deficits ed Poland t Switzerland -20 a US d Russsia provided economic US Euro area China p ) 0 Canada Japan u . es v i s % Netherlands tailwind t v , France Germany -15 ec P Sweden p ( s P D -2 Italy er P D e G China v i Australia -10 t G South u ec -4 Saudi x Korea UK E 2024 Brazil G 2024f Arabia -5 C B f o Argentina Spain . e ed ot -6 v e a er t 0 es a m Mexico Indonesia r i s t m t h i g t s i r Extent of ultimate l s e-8 South Thailand 5 l A eD . I Africa Shrinking deficits p t recovery loosely u o n V r e O point toward G r -10 linked to the size of g 10 n r C i t - economic headwind l u u the deployed fiscal s C re n o C p stimulus -12 15 n o t s o B y India 20 b 1 -14 2 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E 2 © t h g 2019 2020 2021 2022E i r y p o 1. Sample G20 + Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain; Turkey is left out due to data issues/reliability 5 C Source: IMF, Oxford Economics, BCG