1 Recoveries throughout the world in 2021 are currently in a “risky window” of handoff from policy makers to consumers Retail sales have overshot, initially supported by stimulus, but lately have been maintained by the consumer 0 2. n o i s r Retail sales (Index = 100 for 01/2019) e 1 V 202 r e b o t US France c 130 25 O ed t 120 a d p 110 2019 average u es v i t 100 Currently retail sales in the US are more than 25% ec p s er 90 higher compared with the beginning of2019, P e v i t 80 translating into more than an extra $100 billionin u ec x 70 E G sales per month C B . ed v er es r UK Brazil s t 130 The rest of the post-COVID expansion depends even h g i r l l 120 A more on consumers’ ability to carry it forward . p u o 110 r G g n i 100 t l u s n 90 The household sector is well positioned to sustain o C n o 80 t demand—and is even able to push demand higher s o B 70 y b 1 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 2 0 2 © t h g i r y p o Note: Retail sales in value terms (i.e., nominal). Due to difference in country definition, retail sales are best used looking across time within a country rather than across countries, so compare the green vs. yellow lines. 66 C Source: BEA, Office for National Statistics, Ist Nat de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Russian - European Centre for Economic Policy/Haver Analytics, BCG