The CEO's Dilemma

Executive Executive PerspectivesPerspectives The CEO’sDilemma Transform for Resilience d. veer esr ights l r October 2022 Al. oupr G ting sul on C ton osB by 2 202 © ight opyrC

Introduction to this document With the evolving economic, social, and political landscape, there are accelerated changes affecting corporate strategic priorities and targets In this increasingly complex and competitive In this BCG Executive environment, it is essential that organizations face Perspectives edition, we uncertainty with an immediate response and a address how to respond to transformation plan to win uncertainty and transform d. This document focuses on how to rapidly address this for resilience erve uncertainty with concrete actions while leveraging the esr ights l r right behaviors and mindset to successfully transform Al. oupr an organization with sustained results G ting sul on C For leaders, this entails holistically delivering on ton osB executional certainty, leadership enablement, people 2 by 202 engagement, and desired culture and purpose © ight 1 opyrC

Executive Summary |The CEO's dilemma: how companies can respond to uncertainty and transform for resilience Macro Current environment is fraught with increasing uncertainty driven by a set of global disruptions and outlook exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds; global recession risks are elevated It is imperative for organizations to face uncertainty with an immediate response and a plan to win Need for Building resilience creates significant competitive advantages for companies, especially when future crises arise as a result of external shocks and disruptions immediate Rapid and sustained success for all companies requires a focus on both the WHAT,in the form of value action delivery actions needed, and the HOW, in terms of the best way to make these plans truly happen WHATactions companies need to take rests on identifying immediate actions and creating an mp m a p a a x “ f- f ” a d. veer The starting point of the transformation should be a pragmatic, rapid assessment, with an evaluation of key esr value drivers and execution of immediate response and resilience actions l ights r How to For sustained results, establishing a strong behavior and mindset within the organization is equally Al. oupr important, comprising four elements: G respond ting sul and ensure • Executional certainty: setting up comprehensive transformation governance including a transformation Con ton sustained management office that drives actions using agile planning cycles Bos by 2 impact • Culture and purpose: creating the desired organizational environment for sustained change 202 • Leader enablement: activating and motivating leaders to embody role-model best practices © • People engagement: defining key activities and linking desired purpose, culture, and target behaviors ight 2 opyrC

BCG Executive Perspectives AGENDA Current macroeconomic outlook Need for immediate action d. veer How to respond and ensure sustained impact esr ights l r Al. oupr G ting sul on C ton osB by 2 202 © ight 3 opyrC

Rising uncertainty—driven by a set of global disruptions and exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds—needs to be met head on Global disruptions Macroeconomic headwinds Geopolitical tension With tension unlikely to ease soon, organizations need to rethink—not just Soaring inflation derisk—their business models for greater advantage in a multipolar world. Inflationary pressure and consumer demand shifts continue to affect global businesses with impacts on labor, energy, and materials costs. Supply chain bottlenecks How will inflation evolve globally and how can leaders blunt its impact Bottlenecks will continue, increasing strategic importance of agile & on their businesses? sustainable supply chains to support strategies and boost advantage. Tech disruption Rising interest rates The inexorable rise of new technologies (e.g., AI, quantum) Central banks are moving carefully and decisively to tamp down will raise the bar for disruptive innovation and reinvention. inflation via higher interest rates with knock-on effects for Uncertainty d. borrowing costs, investment levels, and relative currency values. erve Consumer behavior shifts How will rising interest rates affect capital access for businesses res Consumers are rapidly changing their purchasing behavior as a and consumers, and will rate increases create tectonic shifts in rights competitiveness around the world? lAl result of recent disruptions (e.g., COVID-19). . oupr People challenges G ting Uncertain recession outlook sul Talent is a critical source of advantage; companies focused on people, Con culture, and new ways of working perform stronger in uncertainty. Global economic sentiment has been gloomy, with recession ton indicators mixed and a wide range of forecasts. osB by 2 Climate change What is the economic outlook, how does it differ from previous 202 The climate crisis, the defining challenge of our time, is challenging companies downturns, and how will it play out across sectors? © to step up with ambitious ESG and net-zero strategies and commitments. ight 4 opyrC

In the News | There is an increasingly complex sector- and region-specific economic outlook Growing global uncertainty… ... varies by sector and region Oct 3, 2022 Oct 6, 2022 Oct 4, 2022 Oct 4, 2022 Sept 9, 2022 'Excessive' policy choices could trigger Central banks face recessionary 'We must change course': UN warns Pharma is place to hide during 3 industries that are poised to do an economic downturn even worse dangers that the world is on the brink of recession well in a recession than 2008 recession, UN agency says recession d. veer Oct 4, 2022 Oct 4, 2022 Oct 7, 2022 Oct 5, 2022 Oct 6, 2022 esr ights l r Al. oupr G ting sul on C ton osB by 2 CEOs are predicting a recession: The first global deflation has begun pma ‘ a a g’ p Tesla's retail fans undeterred by Tech stocks could bounce back by 202 ’ a & and it's unclear just how painful It in demand as recession looms delivery miss, recession fears x a , a ‘v a © now will be ,’ a ight 5 opyrC Sources: BCG, press search from Fortune, Forbes, Financial Times, New York Times, CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ

Recession risks are elevated in both US and EU but drivers and timing remain distinct Key risk indicators US EU Baseline expectations for very slow growth, Negative growth in 4Q22/1Q23 expected to be Select business implications 1 GDP growth under 1%, through 2023 a trough as growth accelerates later in 2023 • Margin compression underway, as passing through 2 Inflation Inflation may have peaked, but concern Inflation surge has hammered real incomes price increases gets harder remains over the degree of moderation but remains largely about energy • Labor markets may remain tighter than in prior 3 Financial An equity bear market and much higher Sharply lower stock prices and increasing downturns, keeping labor markets borrowing rates are headwinds to activity borrowing rates are a headwind to activity retention top of mind Monetary Monetary policy has tightened but does not • Interest rates may stay 4 Policy will tighten until price trends improve higher for longer, with d. policy intend to become a large sustained headwind distinct cost of capital erve implications esr Labor market remains strong with solid job Labor markets still tight, pointing toward ights l r 5 Labor market • Overall, a recession increases Al. creation and low unemployment rates residual strength roup competitive spread – to G outperform in the long run, ting Surveys of manufacturing activity point to a Surveys of manufacturing activity point to a sul 6 Manufacturing businesses need to build Con significant slowdown in growth contraction resilience & seek advantage ton osB • Winners are likely to target by 2 Magnitude of risk Key risk: Policy tightening, driven by Deep energy shock has hammered real Very high 202 persistent high inflation, delivers a incomes and impaired competitiveness, M&A and CAPEX through the © High recession in 2023 leaving Europe in near-term recession downturn to build strength ight Moderate opyr for the next cycle 6 C Source: BCG

Economic snapshot for October shows most recent developments across risk indicators 1 Global growth outlook 3 Financial markets 5 Labor market 1 7 4 GDP forecasts (Real GDP YoY) Equity market performance (YTD change) Job openings rate 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Q4 '21 Q1 '21 Q2 '22 Change10 US 5.9% 1.6% 0.7% 1.6% S&P 500 -13.3% -17.0% -24.8% US 7.1% 7.3% 6.8% -0.5ppts Eurozone 5.2% 3.0% 0.2% 1.8% Eurostoxx 50 -13.7% -18.2% -22.8% Eurozone 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% +0.1ppts Global 6.0% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% Unemployment rate5 8 Corporate spreads (High Yield) Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 2 Commodity prices and inflation Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 US 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% -0.2ppts Commodity prices2 US 4.69% 4.84% 5.52% +68bps Germany 3.0% 3.0% - 0ppts Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 Eurozone 5.90% 5.60% 6.31% +71bps France 7.4% 7.3% - -0.1ppts Brent oil 98.6 89.6 79.5 -11.2% d. Natural gas veer US 8.2 9.1 6.8 -25.9% 4 Monetary policy 6 Manufacturing esr Eurozone 194.7 228.9 165.0 --27.9% l rights Monetary policy rates6 PMI manufacturing (<50 = contraction)9 Al Consumer price inflation (YoY) 3 . oupr Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 Jul '22 Aug '22 Sep '22 Change10 G ting 8.5% 8.3% 8.2% -0.2ppts 2.5% 2.5% 3.25% +75bps 52.8 52.8 50.9 -3.6% sul US US US Con 8.9% 9.1% 10.0% +0.9ppts 0.5% 0.5% 1.25% +75bps 49.8 49.6 48.4 -2.4% ton Eurozone Eurozone Eurozone Bos by 2 202 1. Bloomberg, data as of 10/12/2022. 2. Data presented as end of month figures. Brent oil in $/bbl; US Natural gas (Henry Hub) in $/MMbtu; Dutch Natural gas (TTF front month future) in EUR/MWh. 3. © CPI monthly seasonally adjusted data from Bureau of Labor Statistics; HICP monthly data for Eurozone from Eurostat. 4. Seasonally adjusted rates; Bureau of Labor Statistics for US; Job vacancy rate from ight Eurostat for Eurozone. 5. Bureau of Labor Statistics for US; Eurostat for Eurozone. 6. Federal Reserve for US; ECB for Eurozone (main refinancing rate). 7. Bloomberg. 8. Bloomberg US Corporate High opyr Yield Average OAS; Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Average OAS 9. ISM manufacturing PMI for US; S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI from Markit for Eurozone. 10. Change Sep vs Aug 11. 7 C Change Q1 '22 vs Q2 ‘22. Note: All displayed numbers are based on end of month figures. Changes based on incremental changes vs. previous months.

To rise above competition and capitalize on new opportunities, companies need to adapt to uncertainties What you stand to lose from inaction Companies that build resilience immediately in uncertainty are1 … • Decline in competitive position by More likely to be resting on an initial strong position 19% growth oriented • Overlooked growth opportunities that d. uncertainty exacerbates erve 20% Less likely to esr • Loss of financial buffer and investment flexibility increase debt lights r Al. oupr • High burn rate a p a ‘ f a ’ G ting sul • Becoming ‘easy prey’ for stronger-positioned … than those that wait onC ton companies osB by 2 202 © ight 9 opyrC 1. BCG Henderson Institute

Companies that build resilience rapidly in changing environments have a higher chance of creating significant long-term value Building resilience is key for companies in order to create significant long-term value by increasing preparedness against external shocks and disruptions Building resilience creates competitive advantages and allows companies to rise above their peers: Total Resilient company 1 shareholder • Rapid execution of no-regret actions to return 3 absorb the shock • Adapt to new circumstances and ensure a Total 2 value of high-speed recovery 2 resilience • Reimagine their business to fit the new 3 d. circumstances in the 12 months following veer the shock esr Shock l ights r Industry . Al Transformations improved performance1 by… roup G 1 ting sul +25pp -20pp on C ton osB Recovery Time by For top quartile For bottom quartile 2 202 of resilience built of resilience built © ight 10 opyrC 1. Performance relative to industry in response to future crises, i.e., successful resilient transformations enhance company performance by 25%; Source: Press; BCG Henderson analysis

Rapid and sustained success requires a focus on both the WHAT and the HOW of transformation What actions are needed? How do we make it happen? Defined actions that need to be taken Ensure that actions realize rapid and sustained impact Culture Strategy and d. purpose veer esr ights l r Al. oupr G ting sul on C ton osB by 2 The starting point should be a pragmatic rapid assessment 202 © ight 11 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

The WHAT |The current environment causes changes to P&L and balance sheet items that drive the need for transformation Changes across P&L and BS items Levers to be pulled to improve position Non-exhaustive 1 Top-line protection Income statement • Quantify exposure and margin risk and assess ability to increase prices In millions of USD FY22 FY21 • f a x a a a , … 1 Total revenues - - 2 Supply chain optimization 2 Costs of goods sold - - • Reduce supply chain costs and risks Gross profit • Eva a p m za a j pp , …. 3 E2E cost transformation Deep dive on next slide 3 Operating expenses • Optimize direct and indirect material spending d. veer es 4 Salaries - - • S am ga za , g p a p a g m , …. r Balance sheet 5 SG&A - - ights r In millions of USD FY22 FY21 4 Labor cost reduction l 2 Al. . . . . - - 6 Assets - - • Implement value-driven shoring and E2E managed and automated processes oup rG . . . - - EBITDA • a a g a v p a f m , … ting - - sul Liabilities - - Optimization of energy consumption on . . . . - - 5 C . . . - - • Explore alternative sources of energy, limit hedging ton osB Equity - - • R g a mp v p f g , … 2 by . . . - - 202 6 Unleashing of cash reserves © • Identify value through top-down targeting ight • Act upon selected levers and monitor across real-time dashboards 12 opyrC

The WHAT | Thefour pathways approach to assessing cost transformation More on this topic in the following Pathways can go together: in Executive Perspective parallel or sequentially ORG STREAMLINING DIRECT/INDIRECT OPERATING MODEL AND FULL STRATEGIC OPS MATERIALS OPTIMIZATION PROCESS REDESIGN TRANSFORMATION Samplelevers: Sample levers: Sample levers: Sample levers: Spans and layers, simplification, Demand mgmt., make or repair (De)centralization, tech Strategic sourcing, digital supply consolidation/scale, redundancy or buy, variance reduction, landscape simplification, shared chain, production efficiency, elimination contract management (including services, lean process, design to value for tech and digital suppliers) automation, digitization of d. processes veer esr ights l r Support Support nonlabor costs Support labor Support nonlabor . Al print labor costs optimization print reduction print costs optimization print costs reduction roup y s y s y s y s G ting ver Direct ver Direct nonlabor costs ver Support nonlabor ver Direct nonlabor sul o labor costs optimization o reduction o costs reduction o costs reduction Con disc disc disc disc ton osB Direct labor costs Direct labor costs by 2 alue V Value Value Value 202 optimization optimization © ight 13 opyrC

BCG Executive Perspectives AGENDA Current macroeconomic outlook Need for immediate action d. veer How to respond and ensure sustained esr ights l r impact Al. oupr G ting sul on C ton osB by 2 202 © ight 14 opyrC

The HOW | The HOW of transformation needs to be prioritized to break the ~75% transformation failure rate Change is often necessary, but business Transformations where the HOW is prioritized transformation success is rare achieve sustained performance improvement +90% … change managementis managed holistically 25% in a transformation +19% … d. clarity on the case erve for change +21% res … a CTO is ights l r Only 1 in 4 companies are successful strongly equipped Al. oupr 1 and leading the G in the short and long term transformation ting +27% sul on C … leaders are ton aligned on their osB transformation roles by 2 and responsibilities 202 © 1. TSR outperformance relative to sector over following 1-year & 5-year periods ight Note: Includes U.S. public companies ex-energy with $10B+ market cap; based on 2-year performance samples from 2000-2011. 15 Copyr Source: S&P Capital IQ, BCG Henderson Institute analysis, BCG Global 1000-company research change readiness baseline

Critical building blocks of the successful HOW of transformation People feel seen and supported, Leaders are aligned on the understand what is happening and change needed and are motivated why,and are feeling energized by to deliver on the objectives and the vision are accountable for results. Culture and d. purpose veer All efforts are coordinated through esr A purpose that is aligned to ights l r desired state and target behaviors anempowered transformation Al. oupr clearly articulated, with leaders' management office with clear G financial tracking and a defined ting sul role modeling the change transformation structure Con ton osB by 2 202 © ight 16 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

The HOW | Ensure rapid impact and sustained success along the journey Rapid assessment First 100 days Executional • Develop & empower transformation mgmt. office • Finance discipline, robust tools and reporting certainty • Follow agile planning cycles • Culture and change initiatives ensures that change happens • Set up initial transformation governance • Tracking methodology and tools Leader • Create 'case for change' for leaders to • Define target picture of the company including clear communicate the value to the broader org. targets and aligned incentives enablement • Develop transformational leaders with enhanced • Strengthen leaders to pursue allocated targets equips and unifies leaders skills to support and deliver on change individually and in teams d. veer People • Implement two-way communication channels to • Allocate targeted change evenly across the firm esr engagement engage the organization and create buy-in ights l r • Identify key skills and capabilities gaps in .Al motivates and upskills the • Identify key talents and create retention plans organization and upskill as needed roup organization G ting sul Culture and • Conduct holistic diagnostic to baseline on C • Enable and motivate quick decision making ton purpose organizational strengths and opportunities Bos • Embed desired culture into organization by 2 create the environment for • Explain the clear purpose of transformation sustained change 202 © ight 17 opyrC Source: BCG analysis Examples – deep dives available

Transformation management office | Effective central steering is essential for sustained results along the full transformation journey Strong transformation governance centers around 3 transformation roles with complimentary skill sets Transformation The TMO isthe heart of the management transformation, ensuring that change office happens and the results are delivered Transformation committee Case example CEO Transformation Sponsors management For years, a global company had struggled to implement cost CTO office (TMO) initiatives across a decentralized organization, resulting in cost levels above peers and a limited ability to fund strategic moves. d. CTO erve TMO team esr Starting a new cost transformation, leadership decided to strengthen ights the global TMO and mirror the TMO setup in all regional divisions. rl Al. oupr The regional TMOs were responsible for execution using global G ting expertise and local tailoring. A strong collaboration between the sul TMOs also resulted in increased knowledge sharing across regions. on C ton osB by … Workstream Workstream Workstream … The company executed a very successful cost transformation and 2 1 2 3 decided afterward to keep the setup for future strategic moves. 202 © ight 18 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

Financial discipline | Deployed to drive accountability and ensure real impact Some of the key building blocks for financial discipline include… Develop G1 Detail G2 Implement G3 Deliver G4 Close G5 Financial discipline is critical for idea financials plan executional certainty, from funding the right initiatives, to tracking, to in …aligned the end ensuring that the impact stage gate Idea Business plan Implementation Implementation Benefits hits P&L approach substantiated approved approved completed realized Case example A company experienced vital market disruption and One source high cost levels, leading to a decreasing market of truth position and a critical need for change. d. veer captured in Consolidate Track and report Monitorand predict Identify and act on To regain its position, the company undertook a 3- res a tool finance and program progress performance issues to course rights implementation data correct year E2E cost transformation. l Al. oupr Finance was involved as a key part of the program, G Adjustments tracked and analyzed implementing financial discipline to ensure ample ting sul Impact targets, progress tracking, and validation of impacts. Con ton linked to Bos real P&L mpa a v +€500m &L mpa , by most of it reinvested into the business to accelerate 2 202 innovation and advance the sustainability agenda. © Forecast Actuals ight 19 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

Case for change | Create a strong narrative with your leadership team Case for change… Strong focus on purpose & vision Case for change is a strong narrative of the vision of where we …p v WHY, WHAT,and WHY want to go and why for the HOWthat leaders can articulate in a company and all stakeholders narrative demonstrating value for all • What is the purpose of our transformation? Case example • Why is it important for us now? +110% … a In the first year of a new strategy, a company faced energize & engage WHAT major unforeseen changes in the environment with likelihood the org. with a vast implications for its business outlook. of successful • What is our vision for the future, d. transformation clearly defined erve case for change and how will this transformation Instead of changing the strategy, the company started res help us achieve it? a transformation program building on the foundations l rights • What are the implications for our of the strategy. Al. Sr. leaders aligned behind a single story line employees and our customers? roup G The leadership team worked together to develop a ting Mgrs. equipped with answers to tough questions sul HOW case for change that linked the success of the Con transformation to the purpose and vision of the ton Consistent message in all communications • How will this transformation help strategy. Bos us win? by 2 202 Engaged org. through compelling message • How is this transformation different The leaders were energized by the narrative and © from previous transformations? started engaging the broader organization with an ight aligned and compelling story. 20 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

Two-way communications | Engagement relies on strong communication channels Effective communication combines both Effective communication about the top-down and bottom-up channels transformation is key to ensure buy- in and engagementfrom the wider Org-wide Transfor- organization Org-wide videos mation Once leaders are e-mails/ intranet aligned on the newsletters site Town Case example Extended halls leadership case for change… team offsite A company struggled to effectively communicate Retention across the global organization, relying primarily on Leadership plans the efforts of small local teams. team updates d. veer Transformation esr Regulator The leaders utilized the new transformation program Other/ comms communi- to change its comms strategy, starting with a strong l rights forums to channels cations . Al … a comms and submit engagement plan for the transformation. oup inputs rG engagement plan Supplier communi- A central team created a plan using a wide range of ting should be created using Communi- cations sul a variety of available cation lead comms channels, built key assets and tools, and Con programs Customer used the local teams for tailoring and execution. ton two-way communication osB Focus communi- by cations 2 channels groups Press The company experienced a sharp increase in 202 Pulse check statement engagement and had much more transparency into © survey corrective actions on the people agenda. ight 21 opyrC Source: BCG analysis

Key questions all CEOs should be asking themselves now Non-exhaustive Have I identified all possible risks to my Do I have the necessary executive and business from the uncertain environment? broader leadership support? How vulnerable is my business to current head- Do I have the right resources to fund and winds and disruptions (e.g., supply chain issues, execute this transformation (e.g., expertise, inflation, labor shortages, interest rate changes)? operational team, investment funding)? Have I translated the uncertainties into a Do I have the right processes in place that can scenario view for my business in 2023 & 2024? drive and track this change (e.g., TMO)? 22

3 key actions to respond to uncertainty and transform for resilience 1 Understand the need for change based on current economic uncertainty and internal factors The time to act is now 2 Act immediately while starting an assessment to shape the transformation d. veer Plan a transformation with a focus on the HOW esr ights l r 3 by addressing enablement, engagement, . Al executional certainty, and culture and purpose oupr G ting sul on C Actions should be based on ton osB the specific business context by 2 202 © ight 23 opyrC

Connect with our Transform and Resilience leadership team with any questions North America Europe, Middle East, South Asia Pacific Central Resilience Team America Kristy Ellmer Christian Gruss Gavin Parker Tuukka Seppä Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Senior Managing Director & Senior [email protected] [email protected] Partner Partner Boston Copenhagen [email protected] [email protected] Melbourne Helsinki Aviel Marrache Yahya Daraaoui Crystal Hao Ryoji Kimura Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Senior Managing Director & Partner Global Leader - Corporate [email protected] Partner [email protected] Finance & Strategy New Jersey [email protected] Beijing Tokyo Paris d. veer Vadim Gouterman Asli Kurbay Edwin Utama Alexander Roos esr Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Senior Managing Director & Senior lights r [email protected] [email protected] Partner Partner Al. Toronto Istanbul [email protected] [email protected] oupr Jakarta Berlin G ting sul Mei-Jung Chen Daniel Feldkamp on C Managing Director & Partner Managing Director & Partner ton [email protected] [email protected] osB Taipei Munich by 2 202 © ight Click here for additional insights and our latest evidence-based publications on Transforming for Resilience 24 Copyr

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